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| serious and non-violent offenses have been isolated. Categories that comprise clearly serious or violent offenses have been excluded. Categories which could include both serious and violent felonies, and also non-serious and non-violent felonies, have been excluded.2 Here are the numbers: |
| STATE PRISON INMATES SERVING "THREE STRIKES" SENTENCES WHO WOULD BE RELEASED BECAUSE THEIR CURRENT OFFENSES WOULD BE NON-SERIOUS AND NON-VIOLENT UNDER THE "THREE STRIKES AND CHILD PROTECTION ACT OF 2004" INITIATIVE MEASURE |
| Offense Group |
3rd Striker |
2d Striker |
| Vehicular Manslaughter |
9 |
63 |
| First degree burglary |
855 |
2,626 |
| Second degree burglary |
469 |
2,084 |
| Grand theft |
121 |
749 |
| Receiving stolen property |
355 |
828 |
| Vehicle theft |
231 |
1,350 |
| Forgery/fraud |
67 |
676 |
| Petty theft with prior conviction |
355 |
2,153 |
| Other property offenses |
35 |
173 |
| Possession controlled substances |
680 |
4,819 |
| Possession/sale cont. substances |
298 |
2,266 |
| Sales controlled substances |
194 |
1,221 |
| Manufacturing cont. substances |
29 |
222 |
| Other controlled substances |
45 |
204 |
| Marijuana offenses 35 |
35 |
359 |
| Hashish possession |
0 |
3 |
| Escape |
17 |
58 |
| Driving under influence |
44 |
375 |
| Weapon possession |
390 |
1,744 |
| TOTALS |
4,229 |
21,973 |
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| These 26,202 state prison inmates who are serving "Three Strikes" sentences - 58% of all third strikers" and 63% of all "second strikers" - would be eligible for either immediate release or release within a very short period of time if the "Three Strikes and Child Protection Act of 2004" is passed by the electorate. |
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| 2Some of the included offense groups could include small numbers of serious felonies. For example, grand theft could include grand theft involving a firearm, which is a serious felony. Likewise, sales of controlled substances could include sales of heroin, cocaine, PCP or methamphetamine to a minor, which is a serious felony. These offense groups are included in the list of non-serious offenses because the types of offenses included in them that are serious felonies are deemed to be so small as to not significantly affect the statistical calculations. Moreover, any distorting effect that including these offense groups might cause In calculating the total number of state prisoners who are serving "Three Strikes" prison sentences on current offenses which are not serious or violent - is more than offset by the exclusion of offense groups that must include many non-serioustviolent felonies -arson and "other offenses' in the "Other crimes' offense category - a total of 185 prisoners.
Moreover, calculating the number of "Three Strikes' prisoners who would qualify for immediate or "near future" release because of the initiative does not take into account prisoners who are serving 'Three Strikes' prison sentences for current serious or violent felonies whose prior convictions would no longer be "felony strikes' under the initiative, and who would also qualify for substantial reductions in their sentences.
Therefore, the author is quite confident that a claim that at least 26,000 "Three Strikes' state prison inmates would qualify for Immediate or "near future" release is a conservative and baseline estimate. The actual figure of released inmates is likely to be even higher.
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