Some have claimed that a change in demographics or in the economy explains the recent drop in crime.20 These same groups are predicting an upswing in crime when the economy or demographics change again.
The argument about demographics is that with fewer young people breaking the law, there will be a lowering of the crime rate. The state's so-called crime ridden population (15-24) has been decreasing as a percentage of the overall population for the past 20 years.21 The crime ridden population peaked in 1976, while the state's crime peak was in 1980. The state experienced one of its largest drops in the so-called crime ridden age for the four years immediately preceding "Three Strikes." Yet the drop in crime during that period was less than 3% and the violent crime rate for this age group actually increased by 7%.
In 1997, the crime ridden age actually levelled off as a percentage of the population, yet the crime rate dropped significantly.22
While one should never solely discount demographics factors, the decline in the crime rate is far too dramatic to be described by demographic changes.
20"Crime In California Plunges;" Copley News Service; March 17, 1997
21"What Every Policymaker Should Know About Imprisonment and the Crime Rate; Campaign For An Effective Crime Policy, 1995.
22Department of Finance, Demographics Unit
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