Others argue that changes in the economy have an inverse relationship with the crime rate -- an upswing in the economy means a downturn in the crime rate.²³ In the early 1980s, however, while California experienced a recession, the crime rate dropped. In the early 1990s, California once again experienced a downturn in its economy yet the crime rate stayed the same.

According to James Q. Wilson, a professor at UCLA, �The crime rate has become unhinged from the business cycle. Crime is more likely to go up in periods of prosperity than it is in periods of depression.�²⁴

The only factor in the last 20 years that appears to have a direct impact on the crime rate, is the tough-on-crime bills passed in late 1993 and early 1994. This does not mean that the economy and population demographics do not have any impact on the crime rate. However, their impacts are minimal compared to changes in criminal law and law enforcement.

Law Enforcement

With the passage of �Three Strikes,� some argued that the law would spur a dramatic increase in violence against law enforcement officers, placing them in danger as they sought to maintain public safety. The American Civil Liberties Union made the argument that criminals facing the prospect of a mandatory life sentence would be far more likely to resist arrest, assault officers and kill witnesses. Dave Paul, a corrections officer in Milwaukee, Oregon, wrote in an article, �Imagine a law enforcement officer trying to arrest a twice-convicted felon who has

²³�No one knows why crime�s down; Dan Lungren boasts of a new drop in crimes committed, but it�s not clear that California�s Three Strikes� law is responsible;� San Francisco Examiner, March 24, 1997; A-1

²⁴From an address by James Q. Wilson delivered at the Independent Policy Forum Luncheon; San Francisco; January 19, 1995.

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