During the original debates over "Three Strikes," there were several predictions about how the new law would impact the crime rate. Other prognostications were made about prisons and Three Strikes' overall effect on the criminal justice system. Some claimed "Three Strikes" would have a limited impact on the crime rate, overcrowd the prisons and jails and overburden the justice system.⁴

Now, four years after the bill became law, nay sayers continue to make claims about "Three Strikes" and its impact. The Justice Policy Center claims that "Three Strikes" does not work and the reason for the drop in crime in California is more likely demographic changes.⁵ Families to Amend California's Three Strikes (FACTS) claim that the deterrence created by "Three Strikes" is minimal and does not outweigh the costs of the law.⁶

This report will demonstrate how "Three Strikes" has made California safer and discuss its effect on the entire criminal justice system.

Crime Trends

In 1994, RAND Corporation predicted a 22% to 34% drop in California's crime rate over 25 years as a result of "Three Strikes."⁷ RAND was correct in predicting that California's crime rate would drop.

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⁴Singapore West The Incarceration of 200000 Californians Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, July, 1994.

⁵"Crime In California Plunges;" Copley News Service; March 17, 1997 and Striking Out: The Crime Control Impact of Three Strikes Laws The Justice Policy Institute; March. 1997.

⁶FACTS Response to Dan Lungren, October 15, 1997.

⁷ Strikes and You're Out Estimated Benefits and Costs of California's New Mandatory Sentencing Law RAND Corporation. 1994.