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| In the past decade, the US has been blessed with falling crime rates. To be more precise this trend started in 1994 and has continued through the current year 2000. The real question is there any particular reason for this national drop? |
| When it comes to social trends, cause and effect become difficult to prove. |
| Some of the most popular theories have included lower unemployment due to a better economy and our population's overall aging affect, thus reducing the number of young people that are most often said to be offenders. |
| To suggest either of these theories, the economy or population demographics as having any affect on crime statistics, one should first and foremost look to a national state by state report over this period of time to see just how uniform the results have been. |
| The report, with the numbers being supplied by the FBI, provides in-depth insight, state by state of crime over the last 5 years. |
| Crime statistics can vary dramatically from state to state. Some states have actually shown an increase in crime, some have stayed about level and some have experienced significant decreases in crime. Those decreases are as different as the number of states reporting them. New York and California have the largest measured reductions at twice the national average. |
| Returning to our original 2 theories, that the economy and demographics are responsible for the decrease in crime, which, if so, there must also be a discernable relationship between those factors and the statewide range of reports on crime. |
| Thus states with more crime have an overall and proportionate reduction in their economy and unemployment rate and or a proportionate reduction or increase in the number of people in the most crime prone years. |
| In other words, does California and New York have twice as good an economy as other states, and an employment rate that is half the national average? The answer is no. Do California and New York proportionately possess only half the number of people in the high crime age bracket? Again, the answer is no. |
| To suggest that crime rates are somehow related to the economy or population trends when state by state reports don't back up the theory clearly show that these 2 supposed causes for crime can be readily dismissed as a "red herring" that serve only to distract and diminish the real causes of reduced crime - strict enforcement and certain punishment. |
| Mike Reynolds |
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